ATLANTA—The ongoing internal strife among Georgia Republicans following the 2020 election has rekindled tensions, sparking concerns within the party that this division might lead to a win for Joe Biden in the state in 2024.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s wide-ranging racketeering case, accusing Donald Trump and his allies of orchestrating a criminal enterprise to seize the presidency, highlights the profound divide between Trump loyalists and the more vocal “let’s move on” faction.
In response to the indictment, some Trump supporters are urging a special session of the state legislature to probe Willis, a Democrat. Conversely, figures such as Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Trump opponent, have called for the party to pivot away from rehashing the 2020 election.
This stark contrast in visions poses challenges for the party’s messaging, fundraising, and organization ahead of the 2024 election. This situation raises doubts about the Republicans’ capability to attract voters in a pivotal state where Trump narrowly lost to Biden in 2020. Typically, state parties play a crucial role in recruiting, supporting, and promoting candidates for various elections. Many emerging leaders aligned with Trump lack extensive experience in fundraising and coalition-building, coming primarily from grassroots backgrounds.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
Describing the mood within the party after the indictment, a long-time Republican activist characterized it as “turmoil.”
Some Georgia Republicans are concerned that their internal conflicts could provide an advantage to the Democrats.
A GOP strategist who has worked on statewide campaigns warned against dwelling on the past and argued that debating irrelevant issues could result in significant losses for the party.
On the other hand, some are optimistic that the indictments could foster unity within the party against what they perceive as the Democrats’ weaponization of the legal system for political gain.
Josh McKoon, the state GOP chairman, labeled the indictments as an attack on the fundamental tenets of the nation, stating that the Republican focus is on winning the upcoming elections.
Notably, a spokesperson for Trump did not respond to requests for comment.
Georgia is anticipated to be one of the few closely contested states in the forthcoming election. Winning Georgia is crucial for both parties.
President Biden clinched victory in the 2020 election by securing narrow wins in five states that shifted from red to blue compared to the 2016 results. Among these states, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin were determined by the slimmest margins. Had roughly 43,000 combined voters across these states voted for Trump, Biden would have fallen short of the 270 electoral votes required. With 16 electoral college votes, Georgia is the largest prize among them. Biden won Georgia by a margin of around 12,000 votes out of five million cast.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noted that Georgia voters wield greater influence due to the dwindling number of swing states in the past decade.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
The indictment in Georgia marked the fourth instance of criminal charges against Trump, following legal proceedings in New York, Washington, D.C., and Florida. While these cases energized Trump’s stalwart supporters within the GOP, they may have compromised his appeal to swing voters for the general election. Trump, currently a leading contender among Republicans, could potentially struggle to exploit Biden’s vulnerabilities in Georgia, as suggested by recent polls.
In a poll conducted for a local Atlanta television station, 56% of respondents expressed disapproval of Biden’s performance, while 41% approved.
Recent battles over Trump have fractured state parties in other battleground states as well. Michigan witnessed a physical altercation during a state party discussion about finances, while the Arizona Republican Party encountered internal conflicts between the former chair and the GOP governor.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of election fraud in these states have led to legal chaos, with Michigan’s attorney general charging individuals with posing as fake electors in 2020 and Arizona’s attorney general investigating similar allegations.
In Georgia, Trump exerted pressure on Governor Brian Kemp, Raffensperger, and others to overturn the election results, publicly urging them to “find” votes. His demands were rebuffed, leading to Willis launching her investigation.
The aftermath of the indictment underscored the renewed division within Georgia’s GOP. Trump condemned the indictments and announced via his media platform that he would release a detailed report on election fraud in Georgia. However, he later backtracked, stating that his lawyers preferred to present the information in legal filings.
Kemp countered Trump’s narrative, asserting that the 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen and emphasizing the importance of focusing on the future.
Statewide recounts and a forensic audit initiated by Raffensperger found no evidence of widespread fraud, and legal challenges to the election results yielded no substantial changes.
While the two factions within the Georgia GOP had maintained a tenuous truce in the wake of Willis’s investigation, the grand jury indictment fueled further conflict. The restrained approach of Kemp and Raffensperger regarding Trump has been eroding.
Raffensperger emphasized that Georgia voters had already resolved the issue in the 2022 elections and rejected election deniers. Kemp’s spokesperson, however, did not respond to interview requests on the matter.
Kemp’s super PAC and conservative talk show host Erick Erickson are hosting an invitation-only political forum, where many GOP presidential candidates are present, excluding Trump.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
A poll by Kemp’s super PAC revealed that survey respondents were nearly evenly divided between supporting Trump or Biden in a hypothetical current election. The poll also indicated that 48% of respondents were less likely to back a Republican candidate who denied the 2020 election results.
The Trump faction responded by demanding a special legislative session to investigate Fani Willis and her probe. Some Republican state senators were among those indicted.
While Democratic voters have migrated to metro Atlanta from other states, Republican voters still maintain a numerical advantage in Georgia. Democrats have achieved statewide victories primarily when Republican turnout was depressed while Democratic turnout was energized.
Georgia GOP’s Internal Discord Over 2020 Could Benefit Biden in 2024
For Democrats to have a chance in 2024, they would need a problematic Republican nominee, according to Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
National and state Republicans believe Trump’s fraud claims after the 2020 election cost them the Senate runoff elections and fear that the indictment’s fallout could yield similar consequences in Georgia.
A GOP strategist expressed eagerness for new polling data on Trump’s approval ratings in Georgia post-indictment. This person dismissed the notion that Trump gains strength with each indictment and likened him to having baggage akin to the Atlanta airport.
Additionally, this strategist pointed out that some in the Trump faction are beginning to grasp the potential legal repercussions, realizing that their actions might affect future Georgia election cycles and extend to potential jail time.
The complexity and challenges facing Georgia Republicans as they navigate their internal conflicts were outlined in the Wall Street Journal article written by Cameron McWhirter and Eliza Collins.
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